一、 富融波动率指数指标说明
富融波动率指数(Front Index of Volatility: FIV)是富融期权编制并发布的上海证券交易所50ETF期权合约的波动率指数,简称富融波指。该指数包括4个组成部分:① FIV,富融波动率综合指数,由全部认购和认沽期权的隐含波动率按成交量加权得出;② FCIV,富融认购期权隐含波动率指数,简称“富融购指”,由全部认购期权的隐含波动率按成交量加权得出;③ FPIV,富融认沽期权隐含波动率指数,简称“富融沽指”,由全部认沽期权的隐含波动率按成交量加权得出;④ WHV,富融加权历史波动率指数,由5日(50%)、20日(30%)和250日(20%)的历史波动率按近重远轻原则加权并取20日移动平均值得出。
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二、 富融波动率指数
1.标的50ETF
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日期
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4/17
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4/16
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变化
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变化幅度
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50ETF
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2.793
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2.753
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0.040
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1.45%
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WHV
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23.84%
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24.01%
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-0.17%
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-0.71%
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2.当月合约
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FIV
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15.96%
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19.48%
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-3.52%
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-18.07%
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FCIV①
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8.04%
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16.55%
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-8.51%
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-51.42%
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FPIV②
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27.38%
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22.95%
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4.43%
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19.30%
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①/②
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0.29
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0.72
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-0.43
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-59.28%
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3.次月合约
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FIV
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17.98%
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19.15%
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-1.17%
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-6.11%
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FCIV①
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12.20%
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14.28%
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-2.08%
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-14.57%
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FPIV②
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25.08%
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24.24%
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0.84%
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3.47%
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①/②
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0.49
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0.59
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-0.10
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-17.43%
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4.第1季月合约
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FIV
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19.91%
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21.12%
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-1.21%
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-5.73%
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FCIV①
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15.56%
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17.05%
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-1.49%
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-8.74%
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FPIV②
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26.86%
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26.74%
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0.12%
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0.45%
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①/②
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0.58
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0.64
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-0.06
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-9.15%
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5.第2季月合约
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FIV
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21.34%
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22.52%
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-1.18%
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-5.24%
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FCIV①
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15.93%
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17.14%
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-1.21%
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-7.06%
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FPIV②
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28.67%
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28.08%
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0.59%
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2.10%
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①/②
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0.56
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0.61
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-0.05
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-8.97%
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6.全部合约
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FIV
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16.84%
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19.53%
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-2.69%
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-13.77%
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FCIV①
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10.35%
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16.10%
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-5.75%
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-35.71%
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FPIV②
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26.76%
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23.60%
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3.16%
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13.39%
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①/②
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0.39
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0.68
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-0.30
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-43.31%
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标的50ETF收盘上涨1.45%,富融加权历史波动率指数(WHV)下跌0.17%,为23.84%。FIV(富融波指)报16.84%,下跌2.69%。结构上看,FCIV(富融购指)下跌5.75%,FPIV(富融沽指)上涨3.16%。FIV小于WHV 7%。
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三、指标统计分析(C/P Ratio 是认购认沽成交量比,FCIV/FPIV是认购认沽隐波比)
指标
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当前值
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中位数
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距中位数
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平均值
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50ETF收盘价格
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2.793
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2.959
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-5.61%
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2.925
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WHV
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23.84%
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15.10%
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8.74%
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17.36%
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FIV
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16.84%
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16.86%
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-0.02%
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18.51%
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FCIV
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10.35%
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15.08%
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-4.73%
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16.72%
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FPIV
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26.76%
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19.41%
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7.35%
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20.82%
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C/P Ratio
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138.44%
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118.28%
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20.16%
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120.22%
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FCIV/FPIV
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36.35%
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81.31%
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-44.95%
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82.26%
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统计区间: 自2019年07月30日开始到目前为止,共177个交易日数据
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四、基于历史波动率、CALL和PUT的隐含波动率,估算的标的价格分布概率
50ETF4月期权
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波动率↓价格→
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2.65-3.3
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2.7-3.2
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2.75-3.1
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2.8-3
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2.85-2.95
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历史波动率
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23.84%
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97.02%
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88.76%
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71.09%
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45.91%
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20.95%
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CALL平均波动率
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8.04%
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100.00%
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99.98%
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95.05%
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39.51%
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1.59%
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PUT平均波动率
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27.38%
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94.95%
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85.47%
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68.53%
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45.60%
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22.03%
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50ETF4月期权
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波动率↓价格→
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小于2.65
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大于2.65
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2.65-2.93
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小于2.93
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大于2.93
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历史波动率
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23.84%
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3.30%
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96.70%
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92.69%
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95.98%
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4.02%
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CALL平均波动率
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8.04%
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0.00%
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100.00%
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100.00%
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100.00%
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0.00%
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PUT平均波动率
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27.38%
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5.47%
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94.53%
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88.14%
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93.61%
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6.39%
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五、富融波动率指数动态更新图
1、富融波指动态运行图
2、50ETF历史波动率锥与富融波指对比图
3、50ETF期权购沽成交量比及隐波比动态图