一、 富融波动率指数指标说明
富融波动率指数(Front Index of Volatility: FIV)是富融期权编制并发布的上海证券交易所50ETF期权合约的波动率指数,简称富融波指。该指数包括4个组成部分:① FIV,富融波动率综合指数,由全部认购和认沽期权的隐含波动率按成交量加权得出;② FCIV,富融认购期权隐含波动率指数,简称“富融购指”,由全部认购期权的隐含波动率按成交量加权得出;③ FPIV,富融认沽期权隐含波动率指数,简称“富融沽指”,由全部认沽期权的隐含波动率按成交量加权得出;④ WHV,富融加权历史波动率指数,由5日(50%)、20日(30%)和250日(20%)的历史波动率按近重远轻原则加权并取20日移动平均值得出。
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二、 富融波动率指数
1.标的50ETF
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日期
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4/16
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4/15
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变化
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变化幅度
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50ETF
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2.753
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2.751
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0.002
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0.07%
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WHV
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24.01%
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24.26%
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-0.25%
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-1.03%
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2.当月合约
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FIV
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19.48%
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19.80%
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-0.32%
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-1.62%
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FCIV①
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16.55%
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16.63%
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-0.08%
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-0.48%
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FPIV②
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22.95%
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23.78%
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-0.83%
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-3.49%
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①/②
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0.72
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0.70
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0.02
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3.12%
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3.次月合约
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FIV
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19.15%
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19.42%
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-0.27%
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-1.39%
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FCIV①
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14.28%
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14.28%
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0.00%
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0.00%
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FPIV②
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24.24%
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25.35%
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-1.11%
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-4.38%
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①/②
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0.59
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0.56
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0.03
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4.58%
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4.第1季月合约
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FIV
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21.12%
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21.86%
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-0.74%
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-3.39%
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FCIV①
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17.05%
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17.02%
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0.03%
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0.18%
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FPIV②
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26.74%
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26.85%
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-0.11%
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-0.41%
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①/②
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0.64
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0.63
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0.00
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0.59%
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5.第2季月合约
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FIV
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22.52%
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22.32%
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0.20%
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0.90%
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FCIV①
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17.14%
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17.35%
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-0.21%
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-1.21%
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FPIV②
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28.08%
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27.80%
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0.28%
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1.01%
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①/②
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0.61
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0.62
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-0.01
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-2.20%
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6.全部合约
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FIV
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19.53%
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19.88%
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-0.35%
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-1.76%
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FCIV①
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16.10%
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16.22%
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-0.12%
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-0.74%
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FPIV②
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23.60%
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24.46%
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-0.86%
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-3.52%
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①/②
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0.68
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0.66
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0.02
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2.88%
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标的50ETF收盘上涨0.07%,富融加权历史波动率指数(WHV)下跌0.25%,为24.01%。FIV(富融波指)报19.53%,下跌0.35%。结构上看,FCIV(富融购指)下跌0.12%,FPIV(富融沽指)下跌0.86%。FIV小于WHV 4.48%。
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三、指标统计分析(C/P Ratio 是认购认沽成交量比,FCIV/FPIV是认购认沽隐波比)
指标
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当前值
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中位数
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距中位数
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平均值
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50ETF收盘价格
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2.753
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2.960
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-6.99%
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2.926
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WHV
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24.01%
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15.03%
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8.98%
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17.32%
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FIV
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19.53%
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16.87%
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2.66%
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18.52%
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FCIV
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16.10%
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15.10%
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1.00%
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16.76%
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FPIV
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23.60%
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19.36%
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4.24%
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20.78%
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C/P Ratio
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115.08%
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118.19%
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-3.11%
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120.12%
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FCIV/FPIV
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68.13%
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81.36%
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-13.23%
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82.52%
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统计区间: 自2019年07月30日开始到目前为止,共176个交易日数据
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四、基于历史波动率、CALL和PUT的隐含波动率,估算的标的价格分布概率
50ETF4月期权
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波动率↓价格→
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2.65-3.3
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2.7-3.2
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2.75-3.1
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2.8-3
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2.85-2.95
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历史波动率
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24.01%
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89.23%
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73.61%
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51.41%
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28.86%
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11.79%
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CALL平均波动率
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16.55%
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96.38%
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82.02%
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52.05%
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21.25%
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5.08%
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PUT平均波动率
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22.95%
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90.25%
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74.56%
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51.48%
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28.08%
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11.02%
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50ETF4月期权
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波动率↓价格→
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小于2.62
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大于2.62
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2.62-2.89
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小于2.89
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大于2.89
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历史波动率
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24.01%
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4.78%
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95.22%
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89.57%
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94.35%
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5.65%
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CALL平均波动率
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16.55%
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0.78%
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99.22%
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98.14%
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98.93%
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1.07%
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PUT平均波动率
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22.95%
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4.06%
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95.94%
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91.07%
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95.14%
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4.86%
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五、富融波动率指数动态更新图
1、富融波指动态运行图
2、50ETF历史波动率锥与富融波指对比图
3、50ETF期权购沽成交量比及隐波比动态图